Climate Change
Wine Under Climate Pressure: Fewer Bottles, More Uncertainty
For decades, wine production moved in cycles growers could anticipate. Good years followed bad ones. Harvests fluctuated, but the system adjusted. That rhythm is breaking down.
By: La Data Cuenta
Published: February 11, 2026
Wine has always depended on the climate. But for decades, that dependence was, to a certain extent, predictable. The seasons set the pace, harvests fluctuated, and the system found ways to adjust. Today, that balance is beginning to unravel.
An analysis based on data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (IOV) shows that global wine production fell in 2024 to 30 billion bottles, the lowest level recorded in at least three decades. This is not just a bad year: since the peak reached in 2018, global production has declined by nearly 24%, with the sharpest drops concentrated in the past five to seven years.
The clearest signal is not only the decline itself, but the irregularity. Across nearly all major producing regions, recent years show sharper swings, incomplete recoveries, and more frequent downturns. Wine — a crop historically associated with patience and long cycles — is beginning to reflect an increasingly erratic climate.
The decline reflects a prolonged drought now entering its third consecutive year, compounded by intense summer heat and localized hailstorms. Together, these factors have placed vineyards under significant stress, reduced yields, and delayed grape ripening across much of the territory. Water scarcity and growing climate volatility have also accelerated the contraction of vineyard area.
How climate is changing the amount of wine produced
Move year by year to see how wine production volumes changed between 1995 and 2024. The height of the wine in each glass represents the volume produced in each country and globally. The fluctuations show annual increases and decreases; recent years concentrate the steepest declines. Visualization developed using data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (IOV).
Europe: When Climate Tightens Its Grip on the Heart of Wine
Europe is home to some of the world’s oldest winegrowing territories — and some of the most exposed to global warming.
In 2024, France produced 4.8 billion bottles, its lowest level in 30 years. Italy, despite remaining the world’s leading producer, is coming off its worst harvest on record in 2023 and achieved only a partial recovery the following year. Spain maintains production levels higher than in the 1990s, but with pronounced ups and downs: major increases followed by abrupt declines, without a stable trajectory.
Taken together, the data suggest a system under strain. In a publication in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, an international team of researchers describes how rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and more frequent extreme events are altering the conditions under which grapes are grown, particularly in Mediterranean regions. The study does not analyze global production volumes, but it provides a crucial framework: climate variability is reducing harvest predictability — precisely what European production figures reflect.
United States: Less Vulnerable, but Not Immune
For years, the United States was seen as a relatively protected producer, less exposed to the most extreme climatic shocks. Recent data complicate that perception.
Since its peak in 2018, U.S. production has fallen by nearly a quarter in seven years, reaching 2.8 billion bottles in 2024, according to the OIV data analysis. The decline has been more gradual than in Europe, but it marks a clear break from previous decades. Even when rebounds occur, overall production remains below recent averages.
Southern Hemisphere: Grow Fast, Fall Fast
In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact takes a different shape, but points in the same direction.
Australia and Chile expanded production rapidly over two decades, reaching historic highs around 2021. Since then, both countries have recorded declines of more than 30% in just three years. It is not a prolonged collapse, but it is a sharp correction that challenges the idea of uninterrupted growth.
Argentina shows a different trajectory: a longer, sustained decline, with recent lows and only limited recovery. South Africa appears to be the most stable case in the group, though it too shows signs of pressure in recent years.
A Crop More Exposed
More recent studies on climate change and wine — such as the report by Zero Carbon Analytics, focused on sparkling wine — describe increasingly early harvests, lower yields, and more uncertain planning. Although that report examines specific market segments, its broader context aligns with what OIV data show: producing wine today is less predictable than it was two decades ago.
This analysis does not attribute each annual drop to a specific climatic event. But when viewed as a whole — the recent historic lows, the concentration of declines within a few years, and the greater volatility across key regions — a clear conclusion emerges: climate change is no longer a future risk for wine, but a present variable reshaping global production.
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